For the most up-to-date science thinking on climate change and hurricanes, I highly recommend this NOAA website.Įven though Hurricane Willa will gradually weaken as it moves inland in Mexico, the terrain and populated regions that the storm will traverse pose a significant and life-threatening hazard. It is important to keep in mind that these studies focus on intensity when storms occur going forward not how the frequency of occurrence or activity in given seasons.
From a physics standpoint, it certainly makes sense since studies show that upper ocean heat content is likely to increase. They also cited studies that suggest that as climate warming heats the oceans, storms may rapidly intensify, on average, more often. Harvey, Maria and Irma also rapidly intensified in 2017.Īn outstanding piece in the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang summarized the key factors related to rapid intensification after Hurricane Michael made landfall. Given the state of the science, I argued in a previous Forbes piece that it was the best forecast that we could expect with our current technical capacity but highlights the need for more research on the intensity problem. While the track forecast was quite good for that storm, the storm tapped into a very favorable wind shear environment and moved over exceptionally warm waters. It is well known in meteorological studies that intensity forecasts skill lag behind track forecasts and recent articles have discussed this fact within the context of Hurricane Michael. Rapid intensification (RI) criteria is met when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours or less according to the National Hurricane Center glossary of terms. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Michael with a ring of lightning around the eyewall early Wednesday.
#WILLA HURRICANE TRACK FULL#
In the figure below, there was a full ring of lightning around the eyewall of Hurricane Michael as it approached the Florida coastline. Lightning within the eyewall can also be a sign of intensification and is something that I wrote about with Hurricane Michael. Typically, the outer rainbands of a hurricane contain the most lightning if it is present at all, according to studies published in the scientific literature. While that is ominous in itself, lightning activity in a hurricane can be very telling. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding some of the onboard equipment Enrique Moreno, mayor of Escuinapa, a municipality of about 60,000 people lying on Willas potential track. Emergency officials said they evacuated more than 4,250 people in coastal towns and set up 58 shelters ahead of the dangerous Category 3 storm. The specific statement from NOAA on October 22nd read, The sun sets after Hurricane Willa made landfall in Mazatlan, Mexico on October 23, 2018. According to National Hurricane Center discussion number 11, the plane was struck by lightning flying into the storm.
« Tropical Storm Vicente 2018 Tropical Storm Xavier » Storm Track Statistics News. National Hurricane Center warned that Willa could bring 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain - with up to 18 inches (45 centimeters) in some places - to parts of Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa states, with flash flooding and landslides possible in mountainous areas.įarther to the south, Tropical Storm Vicente weakened but was still expected to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over parts of southern and southwestern Mexico.Before I answer those questions, I want to review the Hurricane Hunter mission that was forced to turn around. Hurricane Willa Storm Activity: Storm Maps There are no maps available for this storm.
Hurricane-force winds extended 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the storm's center, and tropical storm-force winds were up to 105 miles (165 kilometers) out. Mazatlan is a popular vacation spot and home to a large number of American and Canadian expatriates.Īs of midday Monday, Willa was centered about 120 miles (190 kilometers) southwest of Cabo Corrientes and was moving north at 7 mph (11 kph). About 60 miles (100 kilometers) up the coast in Mazatlan, with a metropolitan-area population of about 500,000, Mayor Jose Joel Boucieguez said officials prepared shelters and were closely monitoring low-lying areas.
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